Matchup predictor

Team

Opponent

Projected

7576

#1 · 37–3

#3 · 35–3

47%Win probability53%

Big Ten · 37–3 · #1

Projected

47%

Win probability

ACC · 35–3 · #3

Projected

53%

Win probability

What would it take

Who's playing

Click a name to rule a player out.

Michiganmpg

Dukempg

Every step, so the projection can be argued with.

1Efficiency, against this opponent

Michigan126.8 + (91.2 − 109.2) = 108.8

Duke126.1 + (91.2 − 109.2) = 108.1

2Pace

Projected67.9 − 0.75 + 0.83 × (70.8 + 66.2 − 2 × 67.9) = 68.2

3Base projection

Michigan108.8 × 68.2 / 100 = 74.2

Duke108.1 × 68.2 / 100 = 73.7

Margin+0.5

Total74.2 + 73.7 + 3.4 = 151.4

4Matchup corrections

Home floor (neutral)0.00

Offensive rebounding edge−0.62

Turnover edge−0.10

3PA share edge−0.15

3P% edge (fade the hot shooters)−0.67

Both teams strong0.00

Availability0.00

Roster continuity+0.35

Projected margin+0.5 − 1.2 = −0.7